Concordia

Concordia Winter 2021

Brexit

The Effects of Brexit Doug Rode (1988-1993) is Managing Director of international recruitment firm Page Group. He analyses the effect of Brexit on key sectors of the UK jobs market. R ecruiters such as Page Group and our listed competitors, are often closely tracked by City Analysts, who see jobs to be created in the following months. However, this is far fewer than the 10,000 he had predicted the day after the Brexit referendum in June 2016.” In fact, there has not been a ‘super

our performance as a key bellwether on the economy and jobs market. While in recent months they will have seen our results bouncing back strongly, it is common that analysts also want to understand the impact that Brexit has had on the UK jobs market and what the future may hold. In truth, it is very challenging to dissociate the impact of the pandemic from the impact of Brexit in many cases, and some of the consequences have yet to be fully seen. However, in this article I shall attempt to identify what’s really going on in the jobs market as a result of Brexit in three core areas of the UK economy that have had their fair share of headlines about the challenges they may face. Financial Services Making up 6.9% of our total economic output in 2019, there were very public fears as to how the financial services sector would respond to Brexit, and what it would mean for the City of London. The think tank New Financial identified 440 firms who, post Brexit, had moved part of their business to the EU, with banks moving £900bn of assets, and insurance firms and asset managers transferring over £100bn more in assets and funds. Interestingly, only three of those 440 identified had left the UK completely, with most just relocating the parts of their business required to ensure continued access to the EU. EY reported in October 2020 that this was equivalent to 7,500 jobs. Our European neighbours tried hard to capitalise on the roles moving to bolster their own financial services sectors – Germany relaxed labour laws, French President Emmanuel Macron invited banking bosses to the Palace of Versailles and urged them in English to ‘choose France’, and Italy, the Netherlands and Spain looked at special tax breaks. According to a House of Commons briefing paper “Hubertus Väth, head of the Frankfurt Main Finance lobby group, said in December 2020 that Brexit had created around 3,000 extra jobs in Frankfurt by June 2020, and that he expects another 1,000

centre’ created in Europe as a result of roles leaving the UK. Dublin appears to have been the main beneficiary, and the exodus of jobs is not as bad as was initially feared. We are also starting to see investment in headcount from businesses that have retained their structures in the UK as they adapt to new market conditions and opportunities, and the Chancellor appears to have a plan to support, not least to ensure the UK is more compelling as a listing destination for the biggest new firms, and to ensure that the City can capitalise on the changing markets for digital currency, the Sustainability agenda, and the growing FinTech sector – a market where the UK is earmarked for considerable expansion. Undoubtedly, Brexit has cost jobs in financial services. However, perhaps not as many as was once feared, and the worst of that could now be over. The jobs that we’re now seeing are focussed in new areas as the sector continues to evolve, and, managed correctly, opportunities may well present themselves for the UK to be ahead of the game in some key emerging spaces. Logistics / Supply Chain As we build up towards Christmas and the peak time for many logistics businesses, the shortage of drivers post-Brexit will undoubtedly still be making headlines. Beyond driver shortages though, the impact of Brexit on supply chains and the jobs within them is enormous. Many organisations, from manufacturers through to retailers, have been grappling with planning for Brexit scenarios for years, never quite sure how things would unfold, creating an increase in demand for supply chain professionals across the spectrum. One key area of jobs growth has been the increase in demand for candidates with customs and import and export knowledge. Page Group recently hosted a webinar on this topic where Jaap Bruining, SVP and Head of Logistics at the

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